Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 20.989869 22.905173 25.033401 27.597762 30.637403 34.169791 38.653647
2025-01-12 17.838364 20.265713 23.163085 26.957714 31.929733 38.437183 48.015066
2025-01-19 16.467039 19.336011 22.973984 28.108808 35.520462 46.520269 65.839628
2025-01-26 14.968634 17.968208 21.932103 27.835283 37.008859 52.119951 83.461635
2025-02-02 13.931702 17.034182 21.280500 27.910994 38.946693 59.126921 109.714490
2025-02-09 13.150657 16.335257 20.829339 28.152725 41.158619 67.613427 150.587661
2025-02-16 12.461266 15.680382 20.339879 28.214715 43.033367 76.422152 211.684332
2025-02-23 11.785020 14.975751 19.684944 27.875115 44.032581 83.839882 295.154624
2025-03-02 11.282615 14.478290 19.288051 27.903112 45.774611 94.517034 476.913335
2025-03-09 10.793152 13.959539 18.801476 27.687913 46.931192 104.535511 844.504257
2025-03-16 10.349404 13.477125 18.326660 27.421452 47.903992 115.045397 1947.066599
2025-03-23 9.954993 13.043608 17.893261 27.171632 48.860394 126.802955 13357.792325
2025-03-30 9.601107 12.657555 17.517886 27.007925 50.074106 141.985359 NaN
2025-04-06 9.202412 12.179936 16.953621 26.399231 49.963953 151.026375 NaN
2025-04-13 9.112405 12.183298 17.211515 27.513892 55.101275 202.778704 NaN
2025-04-20 8.819810 11.844815 16.844536 27.251688 56.062549 229.579699 NaN
2025-04-27 8.598135 11.609289 16.642885 27.325466 58.163825 277.040653 NaN
2025-05-04 8.414308 11.425488 16.519943 27.559013 60.940973 352.739649 NaN
2025-05-11 8.220202 11.214660 16.332105 27.618952 63.168797 447.655715 NaN
2025-05-18 7.990198 10.933661 15.996479 27.291342 63.839094 528.504269 NaN
2025-05-25 7.818187 10.742347 15.816685 27.318383 65.988465 708.937136 NaN
2025-06-01 7.628894 10.513910 15.553069 27.110711 67.119653 918.411020 NaN
2025-06-08 7.444935 10.287446 15.280809 26.853507 67.981919 1211.837930 NaN